Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 21.695475 24.698269 27.935701 31.681867 35.893580 40.478609 45.844428
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.265923 21.333622 26.056252 31.929648 39.022979 47.296891 57.662983
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.001822 19.533574 25.048942 32.227967 41.295766 52.336249 66.762675
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.013702 17.757294 23.777882 31.936990 42.657416 56.208897 74.576427
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.714324 16.643802 23.130342 32.229734 44.594164 60.728504 83.282515
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.905926 16.068966 23.086357 33.238590 47.451721 66.527277 93.928311
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.802088 14.951124 22.167844 32.917198 48.395307 69.723528 101.149381
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.467691 13.360891 20.427899 31.256920 47.280178 69.928542 104.125811
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.988902 12.986422 20.396413 32.035673 49.670803 75.153565 114.452897
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.580101 12.674247 20.417483 32.867117 52.154278 80.605432 125.356897
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.976466 11.996908 19.818683 32.688249 53.068326 83.748322 132.948919
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.374577 11.266512 19.073512 32.210125 53.459987 86.082785 139.383809
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.920933 10.754344 18.654416 32.246329 54.699107 89.840685 148.318667
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.596850 10.434885 18.525020 32.741669 56.699323 94.888195 159.546626
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.255899 10.052681 18.254283 32.966491 58.243087 99.253095 169.857302
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.862521 9.541002 17.720003 32.695422 58.922734 102.226857 178.021114
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.596440 9.237961 17.523035 32.986025 60.556024 106.824215 189.055830
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.463677 9.172791 17.741851 34.019879 63.524581 113.784961 204.373375
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.145483 8.723984 17.228379 33.690485 64.055206 116.606551 212.740379
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.673519 7.932031 16.019296 31.994010 62.017548 114.866576 213.089135
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.558337 7.846466 16.138534 32.789802 64.564978 121.270397 228.018954
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.455890 7.778018 16.283926 33.639546 67.250186 128.031298 243.873798
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.241739 7.457520 15.911307 33.456740 67.971438 131.271654 253.504124